Le Mans Weather

[smokie]

Just checked AccuWeather. test w/e looks OK, but my arrival day is now in range (Sun 11 June) and I *LOVE* the forecast for that day.

Turning warmer with times of clouds and sun High: 26° C RealFeel: 27° C  

Even the overnight temperature is about what the daytime temperature is now (16)

[Lawnmower Man]

And from tomorrow, metcheck will cover PQ

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1758

And what makes you think they are any good or better at forcasting the weather?
Just look at June 3.
At 1:58 this morning they forcast 11% cloud and Temp 17.
At 7:59 this morning they forcast 5% cloud and Temp 19.

t.

[Lawnmower Man]

Just checked AccuWeather. test w/e looks OK, but my arrival day is now in range (Sun 11 June) and I *LOVE* the forecast for that day.

Turning warmer with times of clouds and sun High: 26° C RealFeel: 27° C  

Even the overnight temperature is about what the daytime temperature is now (16)

Don't eat it Smokie,  It's horse manure.   Tomorrow the forcast will have changed to something else.

Basicly the weather man can tell you what the temperature is now.  He's 100% on that one.
He can tell you whats likely to happen in the next few hours.  He not 100% on that but close.
He'll give you a good idea of the weather tomorrow. 
Beyond that IMNVHO he's 100% useless.

t

[nickliv]

And from tomorrow, metcheck will cover PQ

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1758

And what makes you think they are any good or better at forcasting the weather?
Just look at June 3.
At 1:58 this morning they forcast 11% cloud and Temp 17.
At 7:59 this morning they forcast 5% cloud and Temp 19.

t.

But a selection of forecasts may give a better overview than just one.

You're just cranky because you only got 6 hours of sleep;-)

[Lawnmower Man]

But a selection of forecasts may give a better overview than just one.
You're just cranky because you only got 6 hours of sleep;-)

A Bumpper Dumpper and a Septic tank both have S**t in them the quantity varies but it'd still S**t.
Don't misstake quantity for Quality.

What makes you think I got that much sleep?

The point I'm making is that in 6 hours they revised the cloud forcast by 50% and the temp by 50% of the difference from the average.

The whole weather  forcast is hog wash.  You might as well guess.  The PQ weekend will be around 21 and they is  30% chance of rain.   The race weekend will be around 23 and a 30%  chance of rain.  It hasn't really raind for a few years now SO I reckon there is a good chance this will be  a wet one.  Thats based on the fact that the Average temp in May is 20 and in June it's 23.   There are 12 days will rain fall on average in June hence my 30% chance of rain. 

So lets see what happens.
t.

[Lawnmower Man]

And from tomorrow, metcheck will cover PQ

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1758

And what makes you think they are any good or better at forcasting the weather?
Just look at June 3.
At 1:58 this morning they forcast 11% cloud and Temp 17.
At 7:59 this morning they forcast 5% cloud and Temp 19.

t.

But a selection of forecasts may give a better overview than just one.

You're just cranky because you only got 6 hours of sleep;-)

And six hours go by and you'll never belive this

15% cloud and temp 12. 

I think  they need a Clue.

t.

[nickliv]

I know it's all based on computer models, rather than a proper forecast, but in my experience of their UK , the weather is <rarely> worse than the forecast.

I'm not going to PQ, but if I was, I'd be happy with that forecast, as the wx would probably be better.

However, long range forecasts are about as reliable as pete doherty. They might as well use a pin, you only really get decent accuracy within 3 or 4 days.

[Lawnmower Man]

I know it's all based on computer models, rather than a proper forecast, but in my experience of their UK , the weather is <rarely> worse than the forecast.

It depends on your definition of worse.  I'm not sure how they actualy make up thier minds for weathe rfor public concumpton.  In aviation the forcasts give Probability figures.  But they only go to 40% probability if it's over 40% then that is the forcast.

I'm not going to PQ, but if I was, I'd be happy with that forecast, as the wx would probably be better.

As discussed in another thread the weather is a bit academic really.   Even if it going to be raining stair rods we would still go.

However, long range forecasts are about as reliable as pete doherty. They might as well use a pin, you only really get decent accuracy within 3 or 4 days.

I always work on the assumption it's going to pee down all week.    I don't care how certian the Weather man is that the weather will be dry.   I take the foul weather gear.

t.

[nickliv]

Lawnmowerman

The good old 9 hour TAF eh?  If we can get a 900 hour one for LFRM that'd be good. I'll ask around at work, see what the met office can come up with

Cheers

N

[rcutler]

I find this site

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1758

very accurate however they only do a 48 hour or 7 day forcast for LM as far as I can see.

[Lawnmower Man]

I find this site

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1758

very accurate however they only do a 48 hour or 7 day forcast for LM as far as I can see.

No Rick they change their mind every six hours.  though I'll give them their due they have not changed their minds in the Last 6 hours.

t.

[Lawnmower Man]

Lawnmowerman

The good old 9 hour TAF eh?  If we can get a 900 hour one for LFRM that'd be good. I'll ask around at work, see what the met office can come up with

Cheers

N

Well LFRM only do 6 hour TAFs. 
If you reallt do have contacts at the MET Office can you find out what this TAF means.

LFRM 281544Z 281518 CNL=

They always put one out each night.

If you want the days weather for LFRM try
http://tmdg.co.uk/cgi-bin/auth/afinfo?ALLM=LFRM

For all of the bells and whistles go to http://tmdg.co.uk/weather/

t.

[nickliv]

I'll see what I can come up with - I'm an air traffic controller, but one of the met guys will decode for me I'm sure.

[nickliv]

Aha, got it.

CNL - Cancelled
Taf was cancelled. This may be due to the following reasons:
 a) No observation(metar) available.
 b) Taf could not be kept under constant review.

Hope this helps

N

[Paddy_NL]

there's this one too>> http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/07235.html